Development of a tool for measuring ASF risk index based on spatiotemporal heterogeneity of host population and landscapes

African swine fever (ASF) has emerged in European wild boar (WB) and possesses a major threat to the pig industry. Because there is no effective vaccine and the mortality rate is high, preventing outbreaks is critical for animal health and welfare and to prevent economic losses in the pork industry. The goal of this project is to proactively detect areas of likely ASF introduction by better understanding the spatiotemporal complex interactions among WB, environment, and human-related activity. Specifically, we aim to identify and quantify risk factors for the introduction of ASF in Sweden in space and time and suggest preventive actions.

We propose to generate a spatiotemporal risk map for ASF introduction in Sweden. First, we will develop a spatiotemporal model for the risk factors in order to simulate ASF outbreaks. We will then calculate the spatiotemporal risk indices for each unit area (eg a hunting area). Finally, we will publish a web-based map visualizing the risk indices and share it with the stakeholders.

The interdisciplinary research group has expertise in epidemiology, ASF, spatial analysis, disease spread modeling, disease surveillance, and risk management. We believe our novel interdisciplinary approach will be useful and helpful to the ASF prevention strategy in Sweden. In addition, our model can be used to monitor other diseases with similar spatiotemporal host dynamics and applied to other geographical and environmental settings.