Utveckling av ett verktyg för att mäta ASF-riskindex baserat på spatiotemporal heterogenitet hos värdpopulationen och landskap

African swine fever (ASF) currently occurs among wild boar in Europe and poses a major and serious threat to pig production. Since there are no effective vaccines and the mortality rate is high, it is important to prevent outbreaks as it would have a major impact on animal health and the profitability of pig production. The purpose of this project is to identify risk areas for potential introduction of African swine fever.

We will develop a risk map for ASF introduction in Sweden. In a first step, we will develop a spatiotemporal model for various risk factors in order to simulate outbreaks of ASF. Then we will calculate a risk index for a geographical area, for example a hunting area. Finally, we will produce a web-based risk map that can be used by relevant actors.

The research group is interdisciplinary composed of experts in epidemiology, ASF, spatial analysis, disease modelling, disease surveillance and risk management. The results from this project will be useful as a decision-making basis for authorities, hunters and other stakeholders. The focus of this project is the introduction of African swine fever in Sweden, but the methodology developed is general and can also be used for other similar diseases in other areas.